Donnerstag, 15. Mai 2014
Democratization as process is not containable, but very contagious. Even though the many old-school leaders ruling their countries in the old corrupt style won't be happy to hear that, but their times are over and their days are counted. They used to rule their people with hegemony in a brutal and authoritarian way all these years based on violence and intimitation, but now their rule is over and new ways of governing based on participation and cooperation are establishing at the moment in many parts of the world. This may come via turbulent years of reorganisation in many countries who were used to endure their authoritarian regimes but now the people ask for more. They demand real democracies and protection of human rights and to live freely and prosper.
In my systemic estimation it's no accident that the focus on the Southern hemisphere via the FIFA world championship in 2010 in South Africa and now the one in Brazil in 2014 are beneficial for the world integration processes. This goes along with the balancing of powers coming from a one-sided dominance of the Northern hemisphere and it's structures. So when the world attention is concentrated via media on the Southern hemisphere it boosts integration and balancing processes in the world. After social unrests in Vietnam and Thailand, for Asia I expect further contagion in China, Malaysia, Cambodia, Brunei.
For the Middle East I foresee further uprising in Syria, Iran, Lebanon, and the Gulf States and in the long run in Saudi Arabia.
For greater Europe I expect that in the expansion of the crisis in Ukraine, the situation in Turkey located right in the systemic contagious (group)dynamic of being between Syria and Ukraine and their civil wars will deteriate and the Erdogan regime will fall in the coming months. And even though it might not be visible to everone by now, also Belarus and Russia will further resonate on the geopolitical change and happenings at their doorsteps in Ukraine and in a broader sense Turkey and Syria.
For Africa further unrest and revolution potential I see in Nigeria, Cameroon, Morocco and in particular in Algeria, which could survive the first round of the Arab spring.
For South America in Venezuela further democratization processes are to be expected, as well as in Brazil in particular. And for Europe in the closer sense and North America as well as Australia, New Zealand the processes of democratization are happening via certain scandals over which the mighty fall.
Global Professional Philosopher
Dr. Dr. Immanuel Fruhmann